A recent report by a certain think tank on “Major Aspects of the Global Market and Regulatory Change in Agriculture and Food Security” asserts that China and India will be in a position to produce sufficient food by the year 2050, without further help from other countries. This is only based on current technological development, they say.
They point out that the gains in productivity will help them achieve their targets in both per capita GDP and GNP. The increases in export prices have been relatively low for these two countries. But further development in the export-import trade might bring about an increase in imports, increasing competition in the food chain, making it more difficult for large-scale farmers to control the prices.
According to the report, the task for global producers and processors will be a combination of increased production, while reducing the proportion of imports in order to meet the goal of having at least a 70% share of per capita GNP. This would mean that in order to keep pace with the current economic growth rates, the two countries will have to increase the production of livestock, fruits and vegetables and other raw materials. Also, they will have to increase the quantity of food consumed by a human population that has been growing rapidly and which is expected to continue growing.
It is noteworthy that China and India are part of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) club. Together, they account for almost half of the world’s population. Furthermore, their per capita GDP of around two hundred thousand dollars a year is considerably lower than the per capita GDP of the United States.
There is a tendency that training futures often lead to a reduction in the magnitude of problems in reality. When people with training futures succeed, the poor and hungry countries are often forced to become more restrictive in order to protect their own economies. This can reduce production and in the long run cost the developing world dearly.
The good news is that there is still a way out. However, it will take more time and more effort. In addition, the same means that are going to help these countries might not be appropriate in all cases.
One important change that the authors of the report recommend is a reduction in trade deficits among countries. This means that there is always going to be a deficit between what is being produced and what is bought. This will make it easier for the countries that are trying to buy less and produce more.
They also recommend the creation of an effective economy for the food and agribusiness sector. This means a much closer tie between foreign investors and farmers. The report says that it will be important to develop their business ties, as well as political ties between them. This will lead to greater foreign investment and foreign market access for both agricultural products and agribusiness products.
It is necessary to distinguish between the short-term food shortages and the long-term food shortages. Many people are wondering why the study does not go into detail about this important topic.
The fact is that the long-term food shortages can only be solved if the bulk of the world’s population is fed. In other words, it is necessary to create a massive domestic agricultural sector that can feed every person in the world. We are currently experiencing short-term shortages, and many people are suffering from these.
The short-term food shortages can be cured only if the agricultural sector is developed and if there is enough money coming into the country. This is only possible if there is enough agricultural production.
Most economists believe that we are facing a job displacement crisis. Only governments and businesses that are capable of creating massive amounts of domestic employment can avoid job displacement. This is the only way that the process will be able to move forward.